England tour of South Africa, 2026-27, match 3 of 6
South Africa vs England 3rd Test prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
63%South Africa
37%England
Quick overview
- Our pick: South Africa to win, a 63% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Newlands: Uneven pace off the surface keeps scoring down.
- Batting depth: We project South Africa to score about 15 runs more than their opponents.
- Safest bet: South Africa (Match winner), about a 63% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the SA vs ENG 3rd Test?
Our verdict on South Africa vs England: South Africa win, with a 63% chance against 37% for England. Newlands should help the bowlers, and we project a day-one score of 242-290 for South Africa and 229-273 for England. The 3rd Test starts Tue, 29 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- South Africa, 63%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Bowlers
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Newlands
Uneven pace off the surface keeps scoring down. Expect wickets from mistimed shots rather than unplayable balls. It should suit the bowlers on both sides equally.
Helps Even
Batting depth
We project South Africa to score about 15 runs more than their opponents. Over a full Test, that is a meaningful cushion, and it is the main reason South Africa are favourites.
Helps South Africa
The toss
Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on.
Helps Toss winner
What will South Africa and England score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a two-paced / bowling surface at Newlands.
South Africa England
- Session 1
- SA76-90ENG71-85
- Session 2
- SA90-108ENG87-103
- Session 3
- SA76-92ENG71-85
Day-one scoreSA 242-290/ENG 229-273
Best bets for SA vs ENG
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 63%
Match winner
South Africa
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 57%
South Africa day-one score
Over 251.5 runs
With South Africa projected near 266, a 251.5 line gives a useful margin for error.
Long shot
Our chance 26%
Top batter
Heinrich Klaasen (South Africa)
Valuable runs at number seven. This market pays long odds, which is why a small stake makes sense.
Who can swing South Africa vs England?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
- Kagiso RabadaHits the deck hard94impact
- Heinrich KlaasenValuable runs at number seven92impact
England
- Mark WoodHits the deck hard86impact
- Phil SaltTurns fifties into hundreds97impact
Match preview
England tour of South Africa, 2026-27 reaches match 3 of 6 here. Home conditions favour South Africa, and our rating includes that edge. We rate South Africa at 63%, weighing team strength, how Newlands usually plays and a two-paced / bowling pitch. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on.
Where the 3rd Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in England tour of South Africa, 2026-27.
The 3rd Test is match 3 of 6, played at Newlands in Cape Town on Tue, 29 Dec 2026.
It comes 6 days after the 2nd Test at SuperSport Park in Centurion, so both squads travel to Cape Town in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
Next, the 1st ODI is 5 days after this one at Boland Park in Paarl.
Newlands hosts 2 other matchs on our calendar: 3rd Test: South Africa vs Australia (31 Oct), 3rd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (01 Dec).
- 23 Dec2nd Test: South Africa vs EnglandSuperSport Park
- 29 Dec3rd Test: South Africa vs EnglandNewlandsThis match
- 03 Jan1st ODI: South Africa vs EnglandBoland Park
More cricket predictions
- 03 Jan1st ODI: South Africa vs EnglandEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27
- 09 Jan2nd ODI: South Africa vs EnglandEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27
- 15 Jan3rd ODI: South Africa vs EnglandEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27
- 17 Dec1st Test: South Africa vs EnglandEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27
SA vs ENG 3rd Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win South Africa vs England?
Our numbers make South Africa the favourites for the 3rd Test: 63% against 37% for England, based on team strength, home advantage and conditions at Newlands.
What time does the SA vs ENG 3rd Test start in India?
The 3rd Test is scheduled for Tue, 29 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST India time, at Newlands, Cape Town. Series dates can move, so confirm on the day.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for SA vs ENG?
For a safer bet, back South Africa (63%). For more value, try south africa day-one score over 251.5 runs (57%). Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Cape Town?
It should help the bowlers: we class the surface as two-paced / bowling for this Test, with South Africa projected at 242-290 and England at 229-273.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in SA vs ENG?
Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on. Expect the toss about 30 minutes before play begins at 19:30 IST, with the XIs named at the same time.
What happens if it rains during South Africa vs England?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Cape Town forecast on the day.
South Africa vs England match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein South Africa aage hain: 63% chance, jabki England ka 37% hai. Match Tue, 29 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Cape Town ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko two-paced / bowling rate karte hain, isliye bowlers ko madad milegi aur score kam rahega. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How accurate are Malik Mumbai's cricket predictions?
Our percentages are probabilities, not promises: a 63% pick should still lose about 37 times in 100. We publish our method and track record on the How we test page.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.