Premier League, Tyne-Wear derby
Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction
We predict 1-0. Here is how the goals should come, what decides it, and three bets at different risk levels.
63%Newcastle
22%draw
15%Sunderland
Quick overview
- Our pick: We predict 1-0, with Newcastle at 63%.
- Home advantage: On top of being the stronger side, Newcastle get roughly a quarter-goal boost from playing at St James' Park.
- Goals outlook: Our model expects 2.6 goals, right on the line. Over 2.5 goals is close to a coin flip at 47%.
- Safest bet: Newcastle or draw (Double chance), about a 85% chance.
Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction is 1-0. Newcastle are 63% to win, the draw is 22%, and both teams score in 44% of our simulations. The match kicks off Sat, 05 Dec 2026 at 20:30 IST.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Our pick
- Newcastle, 63%
- Draw
- 22%
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Home advantage
On top of being the stronger side, Newcastle get roughly a quarter-goal boost from playing at St James' Park.
Helps Newcastle
Goals outlook
Our model expects 2.6 goals, right on the line. Over 2.5 goals is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Helps Even
Derby factor
The Tyne-Wear derby brings more fouls, more cards and fewer clear chances. We have trimmed expected goals and lifted the card range to 4.5-5.5.
Helps Draw
How many goals in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our model's chance of each total. The highlighted column is the most likely outcome.
Best bets for Newcastle vs Sunderland
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 85%
Double chance
Newcastle or draw
Pays out on a Newcastle win or a draw. The odds are low because only an upset loses it.
Value
Our chance 74%
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is likely, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Our chance 14%
Correct score
Newcastle 1-0
Our predicted score. Correct-score odds are long, so a small stake is plenty.
How the teams line up
Confirmed line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Newcastle United
Newcastle are a well-coached side that grinds out results in front of their own fans at St James' Park, built on a strong midfield.
Away
Sunderland
A solid mid-table side. Sunderland are hard to break down on the road at St James' Park, but chances can be scarce at the other end too.
Match preview
Sunderland visit St James' Park to face Newcastle United in the 2026/27 Premier League. As the Tyne-Wear derby, it carries extra edge, and derbies are usually tighter than the table suggests. Newcastle get a 63% rating from our model, which expects 1.82 goals from Newcastle and 0.74 from Sunderland. Line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off. A missing key player can change this more than any other factor, so wait for them.
Newcastle and Sunderland: the games either side
Rest days and what comes next for both clubs, from the published Premier League fixture list.
Newcastle play 3 days after their game at home to Man Utd on 02 Dec, a short turnaround that can show in the last 20 minutes. Their next league game is away at Ipswich 7 days after this one. It is game 14 of 38 for them.
Sunderland play 3 days after their game away at Liverpool on 02 Dec, a short turnaround that can show in the last 20 minutes. Their next league game is at home to Forest 7 days after this one. It is game 14 of 38 for them.
The reverse fixture, at Stadium of Light, is on Sat, 01 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings this season.
- 02 DecNewcastle vs Man UtdSt James' Park
- 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
- 05 DecNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' ParkThis match
- 12 DecIpswich vs NewcastlePortman Road
- 12 DecSunderland vs ForestStadium of Light
More Newcastle and Sunderland predictions
- 01 MaySunderland vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 12 DecIpswich Town vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 19 DecBrentford vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 12 DecSunderland vs Nottingham ForestPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 19 DecSunderland vs Crystal PalacePremier League, 20:30 IST
- 05 DecAFC Bournemouth vs Hull CityPremier League, 20:30 IST
Newcastle United vs Sunderland: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle United, on our numbers: Newcastle 63%, draw 22%, Sunderland 15%. The model uses club ratings, home advantage and recent form.
What time is Newcastle United vs Sunderland in India?
Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 20:30 IST India time (15:00 UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Broadcast changes can shift Premier League fixtures, so confirm nearer kick-off.
What is the best bet for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle or draw is the safer option at 85%. The value pick is total goals: Under 3.5 (74%). Check the line-ups before you bet.
Newcastle vs Sunderland match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se Newcastle United favourite hain. Newcastle ka chance 63%, draw 22% aur Sunderland ka chance 15% hai. Hamara predicted score 1-0 hai. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
Our model expects 2.6 goals. The most likely total is 2 goals, and there is a 8% chance of a 0-0.
Where can I watch Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Broadcast rights in India change by season, so check the official Premier League broadcaster listings closer to the day.
Is it legal to bet on the Premier League in India?
Not for real money online. India's Online Gaming Act 2025 bans online money games, including betting, along with their advertising and payment processing. Our legal guide explains what is still allowed. This is not legal advice, and you must be 18 or over.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Fixture dates and kick-off times follow the Premier League's published schedule and can change for TV or cup games. Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.