Premier League, Tyne-Wear derby
Sunderland vs Newcastle United prediction
0-1 is our call. See where the goals come from, what tips the balance and three bets at rising risk.
26%Sunderland
26%draw
48%Newcastle
Quick overview
- Our pick: We predict 0-1, with Newcastle at 48%.
- Home advantage: Sunderland have home support, but Newcastle are strong enough to overcome it.
- Goals outlook: At 2.5 expected goals, the 2.5 line is a near coin flip (46% for the over).
- Safest bet: Newcastle or draw (Double chance), about a 74% chance.
Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Malik Mumbai predicts Newcastle United to beat Sunderland, 0-1. We give Newcastle a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26%, and expect about 2.5 goals in total. Kick-off is Sat, 01 May 2027 at 19:30 IST at Stadium of Light.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Our pick
- Newcastle, 48%
- Draw
- 26%
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Home advantage
Sunderland have home support, but Newcastle are strong enough to overcome it. Home advantage narrows the gap without closing it.
Helps Even
Goals outlook
At 2.5 expected goals, the 2.5 line is a near coin flip (46% for the over).
Helps Even
Derby factor
The Tyne-Wear derby brings more fouls, more cards and fewer clear chances. We have trimmed expected goals and lifted the card range to 4.5-5.5.
Helps Draw
How many goals in Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Our model's chance of each total. The highlighted column is the most likely outcome.
Best bets for Sunderland vs Newcastle
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 74%
Double chance
Newcastle or draw
Covers a Newcastle win and the draw, so only an upset beats it. Expect a short price.
Value
Our chance 75%
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is likely, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Our chance 12%
Correct score
Newcastle 0-1
Our predicted result. These markets rarely land, so a small stake is enough.
How the teams line up
Confirmed line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Sunderland
Sunderland are tough to score against in front of their own fans at Stadium of Light, though they don't create a great deal themselves.
Away
Newcastle United
Newcastle are a well-coached side that grinds out results on the road at Stadium of Light, built on a strong midfield.
Match preview
Newcastle United visit Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in the 2026/27 Premier League. As the Tyne-Wear derby, it carries extra edge, and derbies are usually tighter than the table suggests. Newcastle get a 48% rating from our model, which expects 1.03 goals from Sunderland and 1.50 from Newcastle. Line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off. A missing key player can change this more than any other factor, so wait for them.
Sunderland and Newcastle: the games either side
Rest days and what comes next for both clubs, from the published Premier League fixture list.
Sunderland play 7 days after their game away at Forest on 24 Apr. Their next league game is away at Brighton 7 days after this one. It is game 34 of 38 for them.
Newcastle play 7 days after their game at home to Ipswich on 24 Apr. Their next league game is at home to Coventry 7 days after this one. It is game 34 of 38 for them.
The reverse fixture, at St James' Park, was played on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, so this is the second meeting of the season.
- 24 AprForest vs SunderlandCity Ground
- 24 AprNewcastle vs IpswichSt James' Park
- 01 MaySunderland vs NewcastleStadium of LightThis match
- 08 MayBrighton vs SunderlandAmerican Express Stadium
- 08 MayNewcastle vs CoventrySt James' Park
More Sunderland and Newcastle predictions
- 05 DecNewcastle United vs SunderlandPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 08 MayBrighton & Hove Albion vs SunderlandPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 15 MaySunderland vs AFC BournemouthPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 08 MayNewcastle United vs Coventry CityPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 15 MayAston Villa vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 01 MayArsenal vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League, 19:30 IST
Sunderland vs Newcastle United: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Our pick is Newcastle United. We rate Sunderland at 26%, the draw at 26% and Newcastle at 48%, from club ratings, home advantage and form.
What time is Sunderland vs Newcastle United in India?
Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST India time (15:00 UK), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Broadcast changes can shift Premier League fixtures, so confirm nearer kick-off.
What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Newcastle?
For a safer bet, Newcastle or draw (74%). For value, total goals: Under 3.5 (75%). Wait for the confirmed line-ups first.
Sunderland vs Newcastle match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se Newcastle United favourite hain. Sunderland ka chance 26%, draw 26% aur Newcastle ka chance 48% hai. Hamara predicted score 0-1 hai. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Newcastle?
We rate both teams to score at 50%, so it leans yes. Over 2.5 goals is 46%.
Is Sunderland vs Newcastle United a derby?
Yes, it is the Tyne-Wear derby. Expect a tighter, more physical game with more cards than usual.
Is it legal to bet on the Premier League in India?
Not for real money online. India's Online Gaming Act 2025 bans online money games, including betting, along with their advertising and payment processing. Our legal guide explains what is still allowed. This is not legal advice, and you must be 18 or over.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Fixture dates and kick-off times follow the Premier League's published schedule and can change for TV or cup games. Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.