Premier League, North London derby
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
We predict 1-0. Here is how the goals should come, what decides it, and three bets at different risk levels.
62%Arsenal
23%draw
15%Spurs
Quick overview
- Our pick: We predict 1-0, with Arsenal at 62%.
- Home advantage: Arsenal are at home and already the stronger side on our ratings.
- Goals outlook: 2.5 goals is our expectation, which leaves over 2.5 at a finely balanced 46%.
- Safest bet: Arsenal or draw (Double chance), about a 85% chance.
Who will win Arsenal vs Spurs?
Malik Mumbai predicts Arsenal to beat Tottenham Hotspur, 1-0. We give Arsenal a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23%, and expect about 2.5 goals in total. Kick-off is Sat, 01 May 2027 at 19:30 IST at Emirates Stadium.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Our pick
- Arsenal, 62%
- Draw
- 23%
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Home advantage
Arsenal are at home and already the stronger side on our ratings. Playing at Emirates Stadium adds roughly a quarter of a goal to their expected output.
Helps Arsenal
Goals outlook
2.5 goals is our expectation, which leaves over 2.5 at a finely balanced 46%.
Helps Even
Derby factor
The North London derby brings more fouls, more cards and fewer clear chances. We have trimmed expected goals and lifted the card range to 4.5-5.5.
Helps Draw
How many goals in Arsenal vs Spurs?
Our model's chance of each total. The highlighted column is the most likely outcome.
Best bets for Arsenal vs Spurs
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 85%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
Wins if Arsenal win or the game ends level. Low odds, but it only loses to an upset.
Value
Our chance 75%
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is likely, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Our chance 14%
Correct score
Arsenal 1-0
Our predicted result. These markets rarely land, so a small stake is enough.
How the teams line up
Confirmed line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Arsenal
One of the league's best sides. Arsenal should have most of the ball in front of their own fans at Emirates Stadium, so the question is whether Spurs can stay compact for 90 minutes.
Away
Tottenham Hotspur
A strong, well-drilled team. Spurs tend to win games on the road at Emirates Stadium by controlling midfield rather than overwhelming opponents.
Match preview
Tottenham Hotspur visit Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal in the 2026/27 Premier League. As the North London derby, it carries extra edge, and derbies are usually tighter than the table suggests. Arsenal get a 62% rating from our model, which expects 1.77 goals from Arsenal and 0.75 from Spurs. Check the team sheets, released roughly an hour before kick-off, because one absence can shift the odds more than anything else.
Arsenal and Spurs: the games either side
Rest days and what comes next for both clubs, from the published Premier League fixture list.
Arsenal play 7 days after their game away at Bournemouth on 24 Apr. Their next league game is away at Leeds 7 days after this one. It is game 34 of 38 for them.
Spurs play 7 days after their game at home to Hull on 24 Apr. Their next league game is at home to Chelsea 7 days after this one. It is game 34 of 38 for them.
The reverse fixture, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, was played on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, so this is the second meeting of the season.
- 24 AprBournemouth vs ArsenalVitality Stadium
- 24 AprSpurs vs HullTottenham Hotspur Stadium
- 01 MayArsenal vs SpursEmirates StadiumThis match
- 08 MayLeeds vs ArsenalElland Road
- 08 MaySpurs vs ChelseaTottenham Hotspur Stadium
More Arsenal and Spurs predictions
- 05 DecTottenham Hotspur vs ArsenalPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 08 MayLeeds United vs ArsenalPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 15 MayArsenal vs Nottingham ForestPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 08 MayTottenham Hotspur vs ChelseaPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 15 MayCoventry City vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 01 MayBrighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham ForestPremier League, 19:30 IST
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who will win Arsenal vs Spurs?
Our pick is Arsenal. We rate Arsenal at 62%, the draw at 23% and Spurs at 15%, from club ratings, home advantage and form.
What time is Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur in India?
Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST India time (15:00 UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Broadcast changes can shift Premier League fixtures, so confirm nearer kick-off.
What is the best bet for Arsenal vs Spurs?
Our safer bet is Arsenal or draw (85%). For more value we like total goals: Under 3.5 (75%). Always check the confirmed line-ups first.
Arsenal vs Spurs match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se Arsenal favourite hain. Arsenal ka chance 62%, draw 23% aur Spurs ka chance 15% hai. Hamara predicted score 1-0 hai. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Where can I watch Arsenal vs Spurs?
Broadcast rights in India change by season, so check the official Premier League broadcaster listings closer to the day.
What is the score prediction for Arsenal vs Spurs?
We predict 1-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The single most likely exact score in our model is 1-0 at 14%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model expects 2.5 goals. The most likely total is 2 goals, and there is a 8% chance of a 0-0.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Fixture dates and kick-off times follow the Premier League's published schedule and can change for TV or cup games. Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.