Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027, match 7 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 1st Test prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
60%New Zealand
40%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: New Zealand to win, a 60% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Bay Oval: A true surface with good pace and carry, and a quick outfield.
- The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
- Safest bet: New Zealand (Match winner), about a 60% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the NZ vs SL 1st Test?
New Zealand are our pick for the NZ vs SL 1st Test, at 60%. Expect New Zealand to score about 281 and Sri Lanka about 259, with conditions at Bay Oval helping the batters. First ball is Fri, 12 Feb 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- New Zealand, 60%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Bay Oval
A true surface with good pace and carry, and a quick outfield. Bowlers will rely on variations, and par scores run high. It should suit the batters on both sides equally.
Helps Even
The toss
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Helps Even
Batting depth
We project New Zealand to score about 22 runs more than their opponents. Over a full Test, that is a meaningful cushion, and it is the main reason New Zealand are favourites.
Helps New Zealand
What will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a flat / batters surface at Bay Oval.
New Zealand Sri Lanka
- Session 1
- NZ81-95SL79-93
- Session 2
- NZ97-113SL85-103
- Session 3
- NZ80-96SL71-87
Day-one scoreNZ 258-304/SL 235-283
Best bets for NZ vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 60%
Match winner
New Zealand
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 55%
New Zealand day-one score
Over 267.5 runs
We project New Zealand around 281. A line near 267.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 25%
Top batter
Finn Allen (New Zealand)
Built for long innings. This market pays long odds, which is why a small stake makes sense.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
- Finn AllenBuilt for long innings86impact
- Matt HenryHits the deck hard89impact
Sri Lanka
- Dilshan MadushankaHits the deck hard88impact
- Sadeera SamarawickramaValuable runs at number seven91impact
Match preview
By this stage of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027, both sides know exactly what the other is trying to do. New Zealand know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. We rate New Zealand at 60%, weighing team strength, how Bay Oval usually plays and a flat / batters pitch. That is a clear lead, though a single big innings can still swing it. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Where the 1st Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
The 1st Test is match 7 of 8, played at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui on Fri, 12 Feb 2027.
It comes 5 days after the 3rd T20I at Saxton Oval in Nelson, so both squads travel to Mount Maunganui in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
Next, the 2nd Test is 4 days after this one at Seddon Park in Hamilton.
Bay Oval hosts 2 other matchs on our calendar: 4th ODI: New Zealand vs India (19 Nov), 5th ODI: New Zealand vs India (23 Nov).
- 07 Feb3rd T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSaxton Oval
- 12 Feb1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaBay OvalThis match
- 16 Feb2nd Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSeddon Park
More cricket predictions
NZ vs SL 1st Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
New Zealand, at 60% on our model, with Sri Lanka given 40%. Team strength, home advantage and a flat / batters pitch at Bay Oval all feed into that rating.
What time does the NZ vs SL 1st Test start in India?
The 1st Test is scheduled for Fri, 12 Feb 2027 at 19:30 IST India time, at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Series dates can move, so confirm on the day.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for NZ vs SL?
Our safer bet is New Zealand to win (60%). For better value, we like new zealand day-one score over 267.5 runs (55%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Mount Maunganui?
It should help the batters: we class the surface as flat / batters for this Test, with New Zealand projected at 258-304 and Sri Lanka at 235-283.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in NZ vs SL?
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides. The coin goes up roughly half an hour before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What happens if it rains during New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Mount Maunganui forecast on the day.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein New Zealand aage hain: 60% chance, jabki Sri Lanka ka 40% hai. Match Fri, 12 Feb 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Mount Maunganui ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / batters rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How many runs will be scored in New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
We project New Zealand to make 258-304 and Sri Lanka to make 235-283 in their day-one scores. The biggest scoring phase should be session 2.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.