Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027, match 8 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 2nd Test prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
70%New Zealand
30%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: New Zealand to win, a 70% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Seddon Park: A fair contest between bat and ball, so session scores should sit close to the format average.
- Batting depth: Our projected totals put New Zealand about 23 runs ahead.
- Safest bet: New Zealand (Match winner), about a 70% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the NZ vs SL 2nd Test?
Malik Mumbai backs New Zealand to beat Sri Lanka in the 2nd Test at Seddon Park, rating their chances at 70%. We expect New Zealand to make around 272 and Sri Lanka around 249 on a pitch that helps neither side. Play starts Tue, 16 Feb 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- New Zealand, 70%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Seddon Park
A fair contest between bat and ball, so session scores should sit close to the format average. The conditions don't favour either side.
Helps Even
Batting depth
Our projected totals put New Zealand about 23 runs ahead. Across a Test, that gap is a big part of why New Zealand lead the market.
Helps New Zealand
The toss
The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here.
Helps Even
What will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Seddon Park.
New Zealand Sri Lanka
- Session 1
- NZ79-95SL73-87
- Session 2
- NZ95-111SL84-100
- Session 3
- NZ74-90SL70-84
Day-one scoreNZ 248-296/SL 227-271
Best bets for NZ vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 70%
Match winner
New Zealand
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 59%
New Zealand day-one score
Over 257.5 runs
With New Zealand projected near 272, a 257.5 line gives a useful margin for error.
Long shot
Our chance 21%
Top batter
Glenn Phillips (New Zealand)
Built for long innings. Top-batter odds are usually long, so a small stake is enough.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
- Glenn PhillipsBuilt for long innings91impact
- Lockie FergusonHits the deck hard93impact
Sri Lanka
- Dilshan MadushankaHits the deck hard81impact
- Wanindu HasarangaCan bowl all day85impact
Match preview
By this stage of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027, both sides know exactly what the other is trying to do. New Zealand have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. The 70% rating for New Zealand comes from team strength, scoring patterns at Seddon Park and a balanced / dry surface. The gap is real, but cricket gives underdogs a way back through one good spell. Confirm both XIs at the toss before you stake.
The toss: The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here.
Where the 2nd Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
The 2nd Test is match 8 of 8, played at Seddon Park in Hamilton on Tue, 16 Feb 2027.
It comes 4 days after the 1st Test at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, so both squads travel to Hamilton in between. The gap is long enough for full-strength XIs, so squad rotation should be limited.
This is the last match of the series, so there is no later game to save players for.
Seddon Park hosts 2 other matchs on our calendar: 5th T20I: New Zealand vs India (05 Nov), 3rd ODI: New Zealand vs India (16 Nov).
- 12 Feb1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaBay Oval
- 16 Feb2nd Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSeddon ParkThis match
More cricket predictions
NZ vs SL 2nd Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
New Zealand, at 70% on our model, with Sri Lanka given 30%. Team strength, home advantage and a balanced / dry pitch at Seddon Park all feed into that rating.
What time does the NZ vs SL 2nd Test start in India?
The 2nd Test is scheduled for Tue, 16 Feb 2027 at 19:30 IST India time, at Seddon Park, Hamilton. Series dates can move, so confirm on the day.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for NZ vs SL?
Our safer bet is New Zealand to win (70%). For better value, we like new zealand day-one score over 257.5 runs (59%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Hamilton?
It should help neither side: we class the surface as balanced / dry for this Test, with New Zealand projected at 248-296 and Sri Lanka at 227-271.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in NZ vs SL?
The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here. The coin goes up roughly half an hour before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What happens if it rains during New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Hamilton forecast on the day.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein New Zealand aage hain: 70% chance, jabki Sri Lanka ka 30% hai. Match Tue, 16 Feb 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Hamilton ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How many runs will be scored in New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
We project New Zealand to make 248-296 and Sri Lanka to make 227-271 in their day-one scores. The biggest scoring phase should be session 2.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.