Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027, match 3 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 3rd ODI prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
66%New Zealand
34%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: New Zealand to win, a 66% chance in our model.
- Conditions at University Oval: Flat, quick and true, with a fast outfield.
- The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
- Safest bet: New Zealand (Match winner), about a 66% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the NZ vs SL 3rd ODI?
Our verdict on New Zealand vs Sri Lanka: New Zealand win, with a 66% chance against 34% for Sri Lanka. University Oval should help the batters, and we project a first-innings score of 312-358 for New Zealand and 293-343 for Sri Lanka. The 3rd ODI starts Mon, 25 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- New Zealand, 66%
- Format
- ODI, 50 overs
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at University Oval
Flat, quick and true, with a fast outfield. Bowlers need a plan B here, and big totals are the norm rather than the exception. Whichever side uses its batters better gains the edge.
Helps Even
The toss
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Helps Even
Series momentum
A win here would leave New Zealand in control, with 5 matches still to come.
Helps New Zealand
What will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a flat / high-scoring surface at University Oval.
New Zealand Sri Lanka
- Powerplay (0-10)
- NZ48-58SL44-56
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- NZ172-192SL164-184
- Death Overs (41-50)
- NZ92-108SL85-103
First-innings scoreNZ 312-358/SL 293-343
Best bets for NZ vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 66%
Match winner
New Zealand
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 58%
New Zealand first-innings score
Over 321.5 runs
With New Zealand projected near 335, a 321.5 line gives a useful margin for error.
Long shot
Our chance 20%
Top batter
Lockie Ferguson (New Zealand)
Trusted at the end of the innings. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
- Lockie FergusonTrusted at the end of the innings93impact
- Rachin RavindraBalances the XI80impact
Sri Lanka
- Dilshan MadushankaTrusted at the end of the innings83impact
- Angelo MathewsBalances the XI88impact
Match preview
Match 3 of 8 in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 brings the sides back together. New Zealand have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. Our projection gives New Zealand a 66% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at University Oval and a flat / high-scoring surface. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Where the 3rd ODI fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
The 3rd ODI is match 3 of 8, played at University Oval in Dunedin on Mon, 25 Jan 2027.
It comes 5 days after the 2nd ODI at Sky Stadium in Wellington, so both squads travel to Dunedin in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
Next, the 1st T20I is 4 days after this one at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
- 20 Jan2nd ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSky Stadium
- 25 Jan3rd ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaUniversity OvalThis match
- 29 Jan1st T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaHagley Oval
More cricket predictions
- 29 Jan1st T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027
- 03 Feb2nd T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027
- 07 Feb3rd T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027
- 12 Feb1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027
NZ vs SL 3rd ODI: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
New Zealand, at 66% on our model, with Sri Lanka given 34%. Team strength, home advantage and a flat / high-scoring pitch at University Oval all feed into that rating.
What time does the NZ vs SL 3rd ODI start in India?
The 3rd ODI is scheduled for Mon, 25 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST India time, at University Oval, Dunedin. Series dates can move, so confirm on the day.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for NZ vs SL?
New Zealand to win is the safer option at 66%. The value pick is new zealand first-innings score over 321.5 runs at 58%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Dunedin?
A flat / high-scoring pitch, by our reading, so expect it to help the batters. That points to first-innings scores of about 335 for New Zealand and 318 for Sri Lanka.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in NZ vs SL?
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Lost overs mean a DLS target; if the minimum overs can't be played, the match is a no-result. Which bets stand or are void depends on each site's rules. Check the Dunedin forecast before you bet.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se New Zealand favourite hain, 66% chance ke saath, aur Sri Lanka ka chance 34% hai. Match Mon, 25 Jan 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Dunedin ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / high-scoring rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Is it legal to bet on NZ vs SL in India?
Not for real money online. India's Online Gaming Act 2025 bans online money games, including betting, along with their advertising and payment processing. Our legal guide explains what is still allowed. This is not legal advice, and you must be 18 or over.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.