England tour of Australia, 2026, match 1 of 8
Australia vs England 1st ODI prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
46%Australia
54%England
Quick overview
- Our pick: England to win, a 54% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Perth Stadium: Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers.
- First-match nerves: Series openers are often priced on reputation.
- Safest bet: England (Match winner), about a 54% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?
Our verdict on Australia vs England: England win, with a 54% chance against 46% for Australia. Perth Stadium should help the batters, and we project a first-innings score of 315-361 for Australia and 307-355 for England. The 1st ODI starts Thu, 12 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- England, 54%
- Format
- ODI, 50 overs
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Perth Stadium
Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers. Boundaries come easily, so a big total is the starting point, not a bonus. It should suit the batters on both sides equally.
Helps Even
First-match nerves
Series openers are often priced on reputation. If Australia start well, expect their odds to shorten fast.
Helps Australia
Batting depth
Only 7 runs separate our projected totals, which is close to nothing. Expect individual innings, not overall squad strength, to settle this one.
Helps Even
What will Australia and England score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a flat / high-scoring surface at Perth Stadium.
Australia England
- Powerplay (0-10)
- AUS52-64ENG52-64
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- AUS168-186ENG167-187
- Death Overs (41-50)
- AUS95-111ENG88-104
First-innings scoreAUS 315-361/ENG 307-355
Best bets for AUS vs ENG
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 54%
Match winner
England
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 60%
Australia first-innings score
Over 324.5 runs
Our projection for Australia is about 338, comfortably above 324.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 23%
Top batter
Sam Curran (England)
Balances the XI. Top-batter odds are usually long, so a small stake is enough.
Who can swing Australia vs England?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
- Steve SmithSteady hand in a chase82impact
- Marcus StoinisBalances the XI90impact
England
- Sam CurranBalances the XI84impact
- Reece TopleyTrusted at the end of the innings91impact
Match preview
This is the first match of England tour of Australia, 2026, so there is no recent head-to-head in these conditions to lean on. Australia know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. The 54% rating for England comes from team strength, scoring patterns at Perth Stadium and a flat / high-scoring surface. It is a narrow call, so the toss and the early overs carry extra weight. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: The toss barely matters. Both captains will back their batters to post or chase a big score.
Where the 1st ODI fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in England tour of Australia, 2026.
The 1st ODI is match 1 of 8, played at Perth Stadium in Perth on Thu, 12 Nov 2026.
It opens the series, so neither side has played the other on this tour yet. Early odds lean on reputation more than on form in these conditions.
Next, the 2nd ODI is 3 days after this one at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.
Perth Stadium hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 1st Test: Australia vs New Zealand (09 Dec).
- 12 Nov1st ODI: Australia vs EnglandPerth StadiumThis match
- 15 Nov2nd ODI: Australia vs EnglandAdelaide Oval
More cricket predictions
AUS vs ENG 1st ODI: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win Australia vs England?
England are favourites. Malik Mumbai rates their chance of winning the 1st ODI at 54%, with Australia on 46%. The projection weighs team strength, home advantage and the flat / high-scoring conditions at Perth Stadium.
What time does the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI start in India?
First ball is due Thu, 12 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST India time at Perth Stadium, Perth. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for AUS vs ENG?
For a safer bet, back England (54%). For more value, try australia first-innings score over 324.5 runs (60%). Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Perth?
It should help the batters: we class the surface as flat / high-scoring for this ODI, with Australia projected at 315-361 and England at 307-355.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in AUS vs ENG?
The toss barely matters. Both captains will back their batters to post or chase a big score. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during Australia vs England?
If overs are lost, the DLS method sets a revised target, and a match that can't reach the minimum overs ends as a no-result. Each site's rules decide which bets stand and which are void. Check the forecast for Perth on the day.
Australia vs England match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se England favourite hain, 54% chance ke saath, aur Australia ka chance 46% hai. Match Thu, 12 Nov 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Perth ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / high-scoring rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How accurate are Malik Mumbai's cricket predictions?
Our percentages are probabilities, not promises: a 54% pick should still lose about 46 times in 100. We publish our method and track record on the How we test page.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.