Premier League, London derby
Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction
1-0 is our call. See where the goals come from, what tips the balance and three bets at rising risk.
43%Chelsea
27%draw
30%Arsenal
Quick overview
- Our pick: We predict 1-0, with Chelsea at 43%.
- Home advantage: Chelsea have both the better ratings and home advantage, which is worth about a quarter of a goal at Stamford Bridge.
- Goals outlook: We expect only 2.5 goals. With over 2.5 at just 45%, a low-scoring game is the more likely story.
- Safest bet: Chelsea or draw (Double chance), about a 70% chance.
Who will win Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Our Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction is 1-0. Chelsea are 43% to win, the draw is 27%, and both teams score in 50% of our simulations. The match kicks off Sat, 13 Mar 2027 at 20:30 IST.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Our pick
- Chelsea, 43%
- Draw
- 27%
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Home advantage
Chelsea have both the better ratings and home advantage, which is worth about a quarter of a goal at Stamford Bridge.
Helps Chelsea
Goals outlook
We expect only 2.5 goals. With over 2.5 at just 45%, a low-scoring game is the more likely story.
Helps Few goals
Derby factor
The London derby brings more fouls, more cards and fewer clear chances. We have trimmed expected goals and lifted the card range to 4.5-5.5.
Helps Draw
How many goals in Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Our model's chance of each total. The highlighted column is the most likely outcome.
Best bets for Chelsea vs Arsenal
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 70%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw
Wins if Chelsea win or the game ends level. Low odds, but it only loses to an upset.
Value
Our chance 76%
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is likely, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Our chance 12%
Correct score
Chelsea 1-0
Our predicted result. These markets rarely land, so a small stake is enough.
How the teams line up
Confirmed line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Chelsea
Chelsea are among the strongest teams in the league and should control the ball in front of their own fans at Stamford Bridge, leaving Arsenal to defend for long spells.
Away
Arsenal
A title-level side, Arsenal will expect to dominate possession on the road at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea need discipline for the full 90 minutes.
Match preview
Arsenal visit Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea in the 2026/27 Premier League. It is the London derby, and derbies tend to be closer than the league table would suggest. We project 1.39 expected goals for Chelsea against 1.10 for Arsenal, and that gap drives our 43% rating for Chelsea. Team news lands about an hour before kick-off, and a key absence can move this more than anything else, so check the line-ups before you bet.
Chelsea and Arsenal: the games either side
Rest days and what comes next for both clubs, from the published Premier League fixture list.
Chelsea play 10 days after their game at home to Coventry on 03 Mar. Their next league game is away at Hull 7 days after this one. It is game 29 of 38 for them.
Arsenal play 10 days after their game at home to Palace on 03 Mar. Their next league game is at home to Sunderland 7 days after this one. It is game 29 of 38 for them.
The reverse fixture, at Emirates Stadium, was played on Sun, 06 Sept 2026, so this is the second meeting of the season.
- 03 MarChelsea vs CoventryStamford Bridge
- 03 MarArsenal vs PalaceEmirates Stadium
- 13 MarChelsea vs ArsenalStamford BridgeThis match
- 20 MarHull vs ChelseaMKM Stadium
- 20 MarArsenal vs SunderlandEmirates Stadium
More Chelsea and Arsenal predictions
- 20 MarHull City vs ChelseaPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 10 AprChelsea vs FulhamPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 20 MarArsenal vs SunderlandPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 10 AprCoventry City vs ArsenalPremier League, 19:30 IST
- 13 MarAFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 20:30 IST
- 13 MarAston Villa vs Hull CityPremier League, 20:30 IST
Chelsea vs Arsenal: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who will win Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Chelsea, on our numbers: Chelsea 43%, draw 27%, Arsenal 30%. The model uses club ratings, home advantage and recent form.
What time is Chelsea vs Arsenal in India?
Sat, 13 Mar 2027, 20:30 IST India time (15:00 UK), at Stamford Bridge in London. Broadcast changes can shift Premier League fixtures, so confirm nearer kick-off.
What is the best bet for Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Chelsea or draw is the safer option at 70%. The value pick is total goals: Under 3.5 (76%). Check the line-ups before you bet.
Chelsea vs Arsenal match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se Chelsea favourite hain. Chelsea ka chance 43%, draw 27% aur Arsenal ka chance 30% hai. Hamara predicted score 1-0 hai. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Where can I watch Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Broadcast rights in India change by season, so check the official Premier League broadcaster listings closer to the day.
Is it legal to bet on the Premier League in India?
Not for real money online. India's Online Gaming Act 2025 bans online money games, including betting, along with their advertising and payment processing. Our legal guide explains what is still allowed. This is not legal advice, and you must be 18 or over.
Is Chelsea vs Arsenal a derby?
Yes, it is the London derby. Expect a tighter, more physical game with more cards than usual.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Fixture dates and kick-off times follow the Premier League's published schedule and can change for TV or cup games. Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.