Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, match 5 of 6
South Africa vs Australia 2nd Test prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
54%South Africa
46%Australia
Quick overview
- Our pick: South Africa to win, a 54% chance in our model.
- Conditions at St George's Park: Some balls stop, some skid on.
- The toss: The toss winner should chase, before the surface slows further.
- Safest bet: South Africa (Match winner), about a 54% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the SA vs AUS 2nd Test?
Our verdict on South Africa vs Australia: South Africa win, with a 54% chance against 46% for Australia. St George's Park should help the bowlers, and we project a day-one score of 233-279 for South Africa and 238-284 for Australia. The 2nd Test starts Sat, 24 Oct 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- South Africa, 54%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Bowlers
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at St George's Park
Some balls stop, some skid on. Timing the ball is hard, so patient batting beats big hitting and scores stay modest. Whichever side uses its bowlers better gains the edge.
Helps Even
The toss
The toss winner should chase, before the surface slows further.
Helps Toss winner
Batting depth
Only 5 runs separate our projected totals, which is close to nothing. Expect individual innings, not overall squad strength, to settle this one.
Helps Even
What will South Africa and Australia score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a two-paced / bowling surface at St George's Park.
South Africa Australia
- Session 1
- SA75-91AUS78-92
- Session 2
- SA86-102AUS91-109
- Session 3
- SA72-86AUS69-83
Day-one scoreSA 233-279/AUS 238-284
Best bets for SA vs AUS
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 54%
Match winner
South Africa
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 56%
South Africa day-one score
Over 242.5 runs
Our projection for South Africa is about 256, comfortably above 242.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 25%
Top batter
Aiden Markram (South Africa)
Turns fifties into hundreds. Top-batter odds are usually long, so a small stake is enough.
Who can swing South Africa vs Australia?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
- Tabraiz ShamsiCan bowl all day89impact
- Aiden MarkramTurns fifties into hundreds85impact
Australia
- Josh HazlewoodHits the deck hard95impact
- Steve SmithTurns fifties into hundreds94impact
Match preview
Late in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, the plans are well known, so execution on the day decides it. Home conditions favour South Africa, and our rating includes that edge. We rate South Africa at 54%, weighing team strength, how St George's Park usually plays and a two-paced / bowling pitch. It is a narrow call, so the toss and the early overs carry extra weight. Wait for the team sheets before placing anything.
The toss: The toss winner should chase, before the surface slows further.
Where the 2nd Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026.
The 2nd Test is match 5 of 6, played at St George's Park in Gqeberha on Sat, 24 Oct 2026.
It comes 8 days after the 1st Test at Kingsmead in Durban, so both squads travel to Gqeberha in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
Next, the 3rd Test is 7 days after this one at Newlands in Cape Town.
St George's Park hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 2nd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (27 Nov).
- 16 Oct1st Test: South Africa vs AustraliaKingsmead
- 24 Oct2nd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaSt George's ParkThis match
- 31 Oct3rd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaNewlands
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SA vs AUS 2nd Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win South Africa vs Australia?
South Africa, at 54% on our model, with Australia given 46%. Team strength, home advantage and a two-paced / bowling pitch at St George's Park all feed into that rating.
What time does the SA vs AUS 2nd Test start in India?
Play is set to start Sat, 24 Oct 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at St George's Park, Gqeberha. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for SA vs AUS?
South Africa to win is the safer option at 54%. The value pick is south africa day-one score over 242.5 runs at 56%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Gqeberha?
A two-paced / bowling pitch, by our reading, so expect it to help the bowlers. That points to day-one scores of about 256 for South Africa and 261 for Australia.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in SA vs AUS?
The toss winner should chase, before the surface slows further. Expect the toss about 30 minutes before play begins at 19:30 IST, with the XIs named at the same time.
What happens if it rains during South Africa vs Australia?
Lost time is not made up in full, so rain makes a draw more likely. Bets on the match result still stand, while session markets for overs never bowled are usually void. Check the forecast for Gqeberha on the day.
South Africa vs Australia match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se South Africa favourite hain, 54% chance ke saath, aur Australia ka chance 46% hai. Match Sat, 24 Oct 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Gqeberha ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko two-paced / bowling rate karte hain, isliye bowlers ko madad milegi aur score kam rahega. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How accurate are Malik Mumbai's cricket predictions?
Our percentages are probabilities, not promises: a 54% pick should still lose about 46 times in 100. We publish our method and track record on the How we test page.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.