Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, match 6 of 6
South Africa vs Australia 3rd Test prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
62%South Africa
38%Australia
Quick overview
- Our pick: South Africa to win, a 62% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Newlands: A two-paced pitch that makes timing difficult.
- The toss: Bowling first is the smart call.
- Safest bet: South Africa (Match winner), about a 62% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the SA vs AUS 3rd Test?
South Africa are our pick for the SA vs AUS 3rd Test, at 62%. Expect South Africa to score about 261 and Australia about 256, with conditions at Newlands helping the bowlers. First ball is Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- South Africa, 62%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Bowlers
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Newlands
A two-paced pitch that makes timing difficult. Batters who work the ball around will outscore those who try to hit through the line. Both teams' bowlers should enjoy it.
Helps Even
The toss
Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on.
Helps Toss winner
Batting depth
Our projected totals are just 5 runs apart. One standout innings is more likely to decide it than overall depth.
Helps Even
What will South Africa and Australia score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a two-paced / bowling surface at Newlands.
South Africa Australia
- Session 1
- SA76-90AUS76-92
- Session 2
- SA91-109AUS83-99
- Session 3
- SA70-86AUS73-89
Day-one scoreSA 237-285/AUS 232-280
Best bets for SA vs AUS
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 62%
Match winner
South Africa
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 61%
South Africa day-one score
Over 246.5 runs
Our projection for South Africa is about 261, comfortably above 246.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 22%
Top batter
Tristan Stubbs (South Africa)
Built for long innings. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing South Africa vs Australia?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
- Tristan StubbsBuilt for long innings91impact
- Anrich NortjeHits the deck hard88impact
Australia
- Glenn MaxwellGives the side a fifth bowler89impact
- Mitchell StarcHits the deck hard85impact
Match preview
By this stage of Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, both sides know exactly what the other is trying to do. South Africa have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. Our projection gives South Africa a 62% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Newlands and a two-paced / bowling surface. That is a clear lead, though a single big innings can still swing it. Wait for the team sheets before placing anything.
The toss: Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on.
Where the 3rd Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026.
The 3rd Test is match 6 of 6, played at Newlands in Cape Town on Sat, 31 Oct 2026.
It comes 7 days after the 2nd Test at St George's Park in Gqeberha, so both squads travel to Cape Town in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
This is the last match of the series, so there is no later game to save players for.
Newlands hosts 2 other matchs on our calendar: 3rd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (01 Dec), 3rd Test: South Africa vs England (29 Dec).
- 24 Oct2nd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaSt George's Park
- 31 Oct3rd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaNewlandsThis match
More cricket predictions
- 16 Oct1st Test: South Africa vs AustraliaAustralia tour of South Africa, 2026
- 24 Oct2nd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaAustralia tour of South Africa, 2026
- 09 Oct3rd ODI: South Africa vs AustraliaAustralia tour of South Africa, 2026
- 29 Dec3rd Test: South Africa vs EnglandEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27
SA vs AUS 3rd Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win South Africa vs Australia?
Our numbers make South Africa the favourites for the 3rd Test: 62% against 38% for Australia, based on team strength, home advantage and conditions at Newlands.
What time does the SA vs AUS 3rd Test start in India?
Play is set to start Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Newlands, Cape Town. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for SA vs AUS?
Our safer bet is South Africa to win (62%). For better value, we like south africa day-one score over 246.5 runs (61%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Cape Town?
We rate the Newlands surface two-paced / bowling for this Test, which should help the bowlers. Our projected day-one scores are 237-285 for South Africa and 232-280 for Australia.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in SA vs AUS?
Bowling first is the smart call. The pitch tends to get slower as the day goes on. The coin goes up roughly half an hour before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What happens if it rains during South Africa vs Australia?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Cape Town forecast on the day.
South Africa vs Australia match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein South Africa aage hain: 62% chance, jabki Australia ka 38% hai. Match Sat, 31 Oct 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Cape Town ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko two-paced / bowling rate karte hain, isliye bowlers ko madad milegi aur score kam rahega. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How accurate are Malik Mumbai's cricket predictions?
Our percentages are probabilities, not promises: a 62% pick should still lose about 38 times in 100. We publish our method and track record on the How we test page.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.