Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026, match 3 of 8
South Africa vs Bangladesh 1st ODI prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
70%South Africa
30%Bangladesh
Quick overview
- Our pick: South Africa to win, a 70% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Buffalo Park: A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average.
- Batting depth: Our projected totals put South Africa about 33 runs ahead.
- Safest bet: South Africa (Match winner), about a 70% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the SA vs BAN 1st ODI?
Our verdict on South Africa vs Bangladesh: South Africa win, with a 70% chance against 30% for Bangladesh. Buffalo Park should help neither side, and we project a first-innings score of 299-345 for South Africa and 266-312 for Bangladesh. The 1st ODI starts Mon, 23 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- South Africa, 70%
- Format
- ODI, 50 overs
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Buffalo Park
A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average. Neither team gains much from the conditions.
Helps Even
Batting depth
Our projected totals put South Africa about 33 runs ahead. Across a ODI, that gap is a big part of why South Africa lead the market.
Helps South Africa
Series momentum
A win here would leave South Africa in control, with 5 matches still to come.
Helps South Africa
What will South Africa and Bangladesh score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Buffalo Park.
South Africa Bangladesh
- Powerplay (0-10)
- SA49-59BAN40-50
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- SA168-188BAN154-174
- Death Overs (41-50)
- SA82-98BAN72-88
First-innings scoreSA 299-345/BAN 266-312
Best bets for SA vs BAN
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 70%
Match winner
South Africa
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 56%
South Africa first-innings score
Over 308.5 runs
We project South Africa around 322. A line near 308.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 21%
Top batter
Marco Jansen (South Africa)
Balances the XI. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing South Africa vs Bangladesh?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
- Marco JansenBalances the XI95impact
- Kagiso RabadaTrusted at the end of the innings89impact
Bangladesh
- Shoriful IslamTrusted at the end of the innings83impact
- MahmudullahBalances the XI85impact
Match preview
Match 3 of 8 in Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026 brings the sides back together. South Africa have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. Our projection gives South Africa a 70% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Buffalo Park and a balanced / dry surface. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Confirm both XIs at the toss before you stake.
The toss: Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Where the 1st ODI fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026.
The 1st ODI is match 3 of 8, played at Buffalo Park in East London on Mon, 23 Nov 2026.
It comes 4 days after the 2nd Test at SuperSport Park in Centurion, so both squads travel to East London in between. The gap is long enough for full-strength XIs, so squad rotation should be limited.
Next, the 2nd ODI is 4 days after this one at St George's Park in Gqeberha.
- 19 Nov2nd Test: South Africa vs BangladeshSuperSport Park
- 23 Nov1st ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshBuffalo ParkThis match
- 27 Nov2nd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshSt George's Park
More cricket predictions
- 27 Nov2nd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshBangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026
- 01 Dec3rd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshBangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026
- 05 Dec1st T20I: South Africa vs BangladeshBangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026
- 09 Dec2nd T20I: South Africa vs BangladeshBangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026
SA vs BAN 1st ODI: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win South Africa vs Bangladesh?
South Africa are favourites. Malik Mumbai rates their chance of winning the 1st ODI at 70%, with Bangladesh on 30%. The projection weighs team strength, home advantage and the balanced / dry conditions at Buffalo Park.
What time does the SA vs BAN 1st ODI start in India?
Play is set to start Mon, 23 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Buffalo Park, East London. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for SA vs BAN?
South Africa to win is the safer option at 70%. The value pick is south africa first-innings score over 308.5 runs at 56%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in East London?
A balanced / dry pitch, by our reading, so expect it to help neither side. That points to first-innings scores of about 322 for South Africa and 289 for Bangladesh.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in SA vs BAN?
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during South Africa vs Bangladesh?
Lost overs mean a DLS target; if the minimum overs can't be played, the match is a no-result. Which bets stand or are void depends on each site's rules. Check the East London forecast before you bet.
South Africa vs Bangladesh match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se South Africa favourite hain, 70% chance ke saath, aur Bangladesh ka chance 30% hai. Match Mon, 23 Nov 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
East London ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Is there home advantage in the 1st ODI?
Yes, South Africa are at home. Knowing the ground and the conditions is worth a few percentage points, and it is included in our 70% rating for South Africa.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.