Australia tour of India, 2027, match 1 of 5
India vs Australia 1st Test prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
66%India
34%Australia
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 66% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium: An even surface with something for everyone.
- First-match nerves: Openers carry the most uncertainty.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 66% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs AUS 1st Test?
Malik Mumbai backs India to beat Australia in the 1st Test at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, rating their chances at 66%. We expect India to make around 274 and Australia around 264 on a pitch that helps neither side. Play starts Thu, 21 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 66%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium
An even surface with something for everyone. Session scores should land close to the format norm. Neither team gains much from the conditions.
Helps Even
First-match nerves
Openers carry the most uncertainty. Early wickets or quick runs from Australia would change the prices fast.
Helps Australia
The toss
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Helps Even
What will India and Australia score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium.
India Australia
- Session 1
- IND80-94AUS76-92
- Session 2
- IND94-110AUS91-107
- Session 3
- IND77-93AUS73-89
Day-one scoreIND 251-297/AUS 240-288
Best bets for IND vs AUS
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 66%
Match winner
India
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 60%
India day-one score
Over 260.5 runs
We project India around 274. A line near 260.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 23%
Top batter
Shreyas Iyer (India)
Turns fifties into hundreds. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing India vs Australia?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Mohammed SirajHits the deck hard91impact
- Shreyas IyerTurns fifties into hundreds82impact
Australia
- David WarnerBuilt for long innings81impact
- Marcus StoinisGives the side a fifth bowler95impact
Match preview
Australia tour of India, 2027 starts here, which means neither side has shown its hand on this tour yet. India know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. The 66% rating for India comes from team strength, scoring patterns at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium and a balanced / dry surface. That is a clear lead, though a single big innings can still swing it. Wait for the team sheets before placing anything.
The toss: Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Where the 1st Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of India, 2027.
The 1st Test is match 1 of 5, played at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium in Nagpur on Thu, 21 Jan 2027.
It opens the series, so neither side has played the other on this tour yet. Early odds lean on reputation more than on form in these conditions.
Next, the 2nd Test is 10 days after this one at MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai.
- 21 Jan1st Test: India vs AustraliaVidarbha Cricket Association StadiumThis match
- 31 Jan2nd Test: India vs AustraliaMA Chidambaram Stadium
More cricket predictions
IND vs AUS 1st Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Australia?
India, at 66% on our model, with Australia given 34%. Team strength, home advantage and a balanced / dry pitch at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium all feed into that rating.
What time does the IND vs AUS 1st Test start in India?
Play is set to start Thu, 21 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, Nagpur. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs AUS?
India to win is the safer option at 66%. The value pick is india day-one score over 260.5 runs at 60%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Nagpur?
We rate the Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium surface balanced / dry for this Test, which should help neither side. Our projected day-one scores are 251-297 for India and 240-288 for Australia.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs AUS?
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch. Expect the toss about 30 minutes before play begins at 19:30 IST, with the XIs named at the same time.
What happens if it rains during India vs Australia?
Lost time is not made up in full, so rain makes a draw more likely. Bets on the match result still stand, while session markets for overs never bowled are usually void. Check the forecast for Nagpur on the day.
India vs Australia match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se India favourite hain, 66% chance ke saath, aur Australia ka chance 34% hai. Match Thu, 21 Jan 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Nagpur ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Where can I follow India vs Australia live?
Follow the score ball by ball on the Malik Mumbai live scores page. TV and streaming rights vary by country, so check local listings for the broadcast.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.