Australia tour of India, 2027, match 5 of 5
India vs Australia 5th Test prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
67%India
33%Australia
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 67% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium: Neither bat nor ball should dominate, so expect session scores near the usual average for this format.
- Series momentum: With 0 matches left after this one, India can put real pressure on with a win here.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 67% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs AUS 5th Test?
Malik Mumbai backs India to beat Australia in the 5th Test at Narendra Modi Stadium, rating their chances at 67%. We expect India to make around 280 and Australia around 267 on a pitch that helps neither side. Play starts Wed, 03 Mar 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 67%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium
Neither bat nor ball should dominate, so expect session scores near the usual average for this format. Neither attack gets special help here.
Helps Even
Series momentum
With 0 matches left after this one, India can put real pressure on with a win here.
Helps India
Batting depth
We project India to score about 13 runs more than their opponents. Over a full Test, that is a meaningful cushion, and it is the main reason India are favourites.
Helps India
What will India and Australia score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Narendra Modi Stadium.
India Australia
- Session 1
- IND84-100AUS82-96
- Session 2
- IND92-110AUS88-106
- Session 3
- IND79-95AUS73-89
Day-one scoreIND 255-305/AUS 243-291
Best bets for IND vs AUS
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 67%
Match winner
India
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 57%
India day-one score
Over 265.5 runs
With India projected near 280, a 265.5 line gives a useful margin for error.
Long shot
Our chance 19%
Top batter
Rohit Sharma (India)
Built for long innings. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing India vs Australia?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Rohit SharmaBuilt for long innings91impact
- Mohammed SirajHits the deck hard90impact
Australia
- Josh HazlewoodHits the deck hard94impact
- Steve SmithTurns fifties into hundreds90impact
Match preview
By this stage of Australia tour of India, 2027, both sides know exactly what the other is trying to do. Home conditions favour India, and our rating includes that edge. Our projection gives India a 67% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Narendra Modi Stadium and a balanced / dry surface. The gap is real, but cricket gives underdogs a way back through one good spell. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Where the 5th Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of India, 2027.
The 5th Test is match 5 of 5, played at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad on Wed, 03 Mar 2027.
It comes 10 days after the 4th Test at JSCA International Stadium Complex in Ranchi, so both squads travel to Ahmedabad in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
This is the last match of the series, so there is no later game to save players for.
Narendra Modi Stadium hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 3rd ODI: India vs Sri Lanka (19 Dec).
- 21 Feb4th Test: India vs AustraliaJSCA International Stadium Complex
- 03 Mar5th Test: India vs AustraliaNarendra Modi StadiumThis match
More cricket predictions
IND vs AUS 5th Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Australia?
Our numbers make India the favourites for the 5th Test: 67% against 33% for Australia, based on team strength, home advantage and conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium.
What time does the IND vs AUS 5th Test start in India?
First ball is due Wed, 03 Mar 2027 at 19:30 IST India time at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs AUS?
For a safer bet, back India (67%). For more value, try india day-one score over 265.5 runs (57%). Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Ahmedabad?
It should help neither side: we class the surface as balanced / dry for this Test, with India projected at 255-305 and Australia at 243-291.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs AUS?
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch. The coin goes up roughly half an hour before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What happens if it rains during India vs Australia?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Ahmedabad forecast on the day.
India vs Australia match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein India aage hain: 67% chance, jabki Australia ka 33% hai. Match Wed, 03 Mar 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Ahmedabad ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Is there home advantage in the 5th Test?
Yes, India are at home. Knowing the ground and the conditions is worth a few percentage points, and it is included in our 67% rating for India.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.