Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026, match 1 of 6
India vs Sri Lanka 1st ODI prediction
The verdict, a pitch read, how each innings should unfold and three bets at rising risk.
70%India
30%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 70% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Arun Jaitley Stadium: An even surface with something for everyone.
- First-match nerves: Openers carry the most uncertainty.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 70% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs SL 1st ODI?
India are our pick for the IND vs SL 1st ODI, at 70%. Expect India to score about 323 and Sri Lanka about 309, with conditions at Arun Jaitley Stadium helping neither side. First ball is Sun, 13 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 70%
- Format
- ODI, 50 overs
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Arun Jaitley Stadium
An even surface with something for everyone. Phase scores should land close to the format norm. Neither team gains much from the conditions.
Helps Even
First-match nerves
Openers carry the most uncertainty. Early wickets or quick runs from Sri Lanka would change the prices fast.
Helps Sri Lanka
Batting depth
India should outscore their opponents by roughly 14 runs on our numbers, a solid buffer over a ODI.
Helps India
What will India and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Arun Jaitley Stadium.
India Sri Lanka
- Powerplay (0-10)
- IND51-63SL47-57
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- IND164-186SL163-183
- Death Overs (41-50)
- IND82-100SL75-93
First-innings scoreIND 297-349/SL 285-333
Best bets for IND vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 70%
Match winner
India
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 61%
India first-innings score
Over 307.5 runs
We project India around 323. A line near 307.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 25%
Top batter
Shreyas Iyer (India)
Steady hand in a chase. This market pays long odds, which is why a small stake makes sense.
Who can swing India vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Shreyas IyerSteady hand in a chase93impact
- Hardik PandyaBalances the XI84impact
Sri Lanka
- Charith AsalankaSteady hand in a chase94impact
- Matheesha PathiranaTrusted at the end of the innings93impact
Match preview
As the opener of Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026, this game is priced more on reputation than on current form. India have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. Our projection gives India a 70% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Arun Jaitley Stadium and a balanced / dry surface. The gap is real, but cricket gives underdogs a way back through one good spell. Wait for the team sheets before placing anything.
The toss: Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Where the 1st ODI fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026.
The 1st ODI is match 1 of 6, played at Arun Jaitley Stadium in Delhi on Sun, 13 Dec 2026.
It opens the series, so neither side has played the other on this tour yet. Early odds lean on reputation more than on form in these conditions.
Next, the 2nd ODI is 3 days after this one at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru.
- 13 Dec1st ODI: India vs Sri LankaArun Jaitley StadiumThis match
- 16 Dec2nd ODI: India vs Sri LankaM. Chinnaswamy Stadium
More cricket predictions
IND vs SL 1st ODI: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Sri Lanka?
India, at 70% on our model, with Sri Lanka given 30%. Team strength, home advantage and a balanced / dry pitch at Arun Jaitley Stadium all feed into that rating.
What time does the IND vs SL 1st ODI start in India?
Play is set to start Sun, 13 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs SL?
For a safer bet, back India (70%). For more value, try india first-innings score over 307.5 runs (61%). Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Delhi?
We rate the Arun Jaitley Stadium surface balanced / dry for this ODI, which should help neither side. Our projected first-innings scores are 297-349 for India and 285-333 for Sri Lanka.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs SL?
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during India vs Sri Lanka?
Rain brings in DLS for a revised target, and too few overs means a no-result. Settlement then follows each site's rules for the market. Look at the forecast for Delhi on match day.
India vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein India aage hain: 70% chance, jabki Sri Lanka ka 30% hai. Match Sun, 13 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Delhi ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How accurate are Malik Mumbai's cricket predictions?
Our percentages are probabilities, not promises: a 70% pick should still lose about 30 times in 100. We publish our method and track record on the How we test page.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.