Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026, match 3 of 6
India vs Sri Lanka 3rd ODI prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
68%India
32%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 68% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium: An even surface with something for everyone.
- Batting depth: India should outscore their opponents by roughly 28 runs on our numbers, a solid buffer over a ODI.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 68% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs SL 3rd ODI?
Our verdict on India vs Sri Lanka: India win, with a 68% chance against 32% for Sri Lanka. Narendra Modi Stadium should help neither side, and we project a first-innings score of 305-349 for India and 275-323 for Sri Lanka. The 3rd ODI starts Sat, 19 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 68%
- Format
- ODI, 50 overs
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium
An even surface with something for everyone. Phase scores should land close to the format norm. Neither team gains much from the conditions.
Helps Even
Batting depth
India should outscore their opponents by roughly 28 runs on our numbers, a solid buffer over a ODI.
Helps India
Series momentum
A win here would leave India in control, with 3 matches still to come.
Helps India
What will India and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Narendra Modi Stadium.
India Sri Lanka
- Powerplay (0-10)
- IND52-62SL41-53
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- IND164-182SL157-177
- Death Overs (41-50)
- IND89-105SL77-93
First-innings scoreIND 305-349/SL 275-323
Best bets for IND vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 68%
Match winner
India
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 62%
India first-innings score
Over 313.5 runs
Our projection for India is about 327, comfortably above 313.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 25%
Top batter
Yashasvi Jaiswal (India)
Steady hand in a chase. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing India vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Yashasvi JaiswalSteady hand in a chase79impact
- Mohammed SirajTrusted at the end of the innings95impact
Sri Lanka
- Dushmantha ChameeraTrusted at the end of the innings88impact
- Wanindu HasarangaTakes wickets through the middle89impact
Match preview
Match 3 of 6 in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026 brings the sides back together. India have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. We rate India at 68%, weighing team strength, how Narendra Modi Stadium usually plays and a balanced / dry pitch. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: A coin toss in more ways than one. Neither choice gives a clear edge here.
Where the 3rd ODI fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026.
The 3rd ODI is match 3 of 6, played at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad on Sat, 19 Dec 2026.
It comes 3 days after the 2nd ODI at M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru, so both squads travel to Ahmedabad in between. The gap is long enough for full-strength XIs, so squad rotation should be limited.
Next, the 1st T20I is 2 days after this one at Niranjan Shah Stadium in Rajkot.
Narendra Modi Stadium hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 5th Test: India vs Australia (03 Mar).
- 16 Dec2nd ODI: India vs Sri LankaM. Chinnaswamy Stadium
- 19 Dec3rd ODI: India vs Sri LankaNarendra Modi StadiumThis match
- 21 Dec1st T20I: India vs Sri LankaNiranjan Shah Stadium
More cricket predictions
IND vs SL 3rd ODI: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Sri Lanka?
Our numbers make India the favourites for the 3rd ODI: 68% against 32% for Sri Lanka, based on team strength, home advantage and conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium.
What time does the IND vs SL 3rd ODI start in India?
First ball is due Sat, 19 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST India time at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs SL?
India to win is the safer option at 68%. The value pick is india first-innings score over 313.5 runs at 62%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Ahmedabad?
We rate the Narendra Modi Stadium surface balanced / dry for this ODI, which should help neither side. Our projected first-innings scores are 305-349 for India and 275-323 for Sri Lanka.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs SL?
A coin toss in more ways than one. Neither choice gives a clear edge here. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during India vs Sri Lanka?
Lost overs mean a DLS target; if the minimum overs can't be played, the match is a no-result. Which bets stand or are void depends on each site's rules. Check the Ahmedabad forecast before you bet.
India vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se India favourite hain, 68% chance ke saath, aur Sri Lanka ka chance 32% hai. Match Sat, 19 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Ahmedabad ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How many runs will be scored in India vs Sri Lanka?
We project India to make 305-349 and Sri Lanka to make 275-323 in their first-innings scores. The biggest scoring phase should be middle overs (11-40).
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.