Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026, match 6 of 6
India vs Sri Lanka 3rd T20I prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
70%India
30%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 70% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium: A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average.
- Series momentum: With 0 matches left after this one, India can put real pressure on with a win here.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 70% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs SL 3rd T20I?
India are our pick for the IND vs SL 3rd T20I, at 70%. Expect India to score about 210 and Sri Lanka about 182, with conditions at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium helping neither side. First ball is Sun, 27 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 70%
- Format
- T20 International
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium
A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average. Neither team gains much from the conditions.
Helps Even
Series momentum
With 0 matches left after this one, India can put real pressure on with a win here.
Helps India
The toss
The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here.
Helps Even
What will India and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium.
India Sri Lanka
- Powerplay (0-6)
- IND56-64SL46-54
- Middle Overs (7-15)
- IND76-86SL69-81
- Death Overs (16-20)
- IND62-76SL51-63
First-innings scoreIND 194-226/SL 166-198
Best bets for IND vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 70%
Match winner
India
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 57%
India first-innings score
Over 200.5 runs
Our projection for India is about 210, comfortably above 200.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 22%
Top batter
Virat Kohli (India)
Best finisher in the side. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing India vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Mohammed SirajOur pick for overs 17-2083impact
- Virat KohliBest finisher in the side91impact
Sri Lanka
- Angelo MathewsUseful with bat and ball93impact
- Pathum NissankaBest finisher in the side83impact
Match preview
With most of Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026 played, there are few surprises left in either line-up. Home conditions favour India, and our rating includes that edge. Our projection gives India a 70% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium and a balanced / dry surface. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Confirm both XIs at the toss before you stake.
The toss: The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here.
Where the 3rd T20I fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026.
The 3rd T20I is match 6 of 6, played at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Pune on Sun, 27 Dec 2026.
It comes 3 days after the 2nd T20I at Barabati Stadium in Cuttack, so both squads travel to Pune in between. The gap is long enough for full-strength XIs, so squad rotation should be limited.
This is the last match of the series, so there is no later game to save players for.
- 24 Dec2nd T20I: India vs Sri LankaBarabati Stadium
- 27 Dec3rd T20I: India vs Sri LankaMaharashtra Cricket Association StadiumThis match
More cricket predictions
IND vs SL 3rd T20I: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Sri Lanka?
India are favourites. Malik Mumbai rates their chance of winning the 3rd T20I at 70%, with Sri Lanka on 30%. The projection weighs team strength, home advantage and the balanced / dry conditions at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium.
What time does the IND vs SL 3rd T20I start in India?
First ball is due Sun, 27 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST India time at Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs SL?
Our safer bet is India to win (70%). For better value, we like india first-innings score over 200.5 runs (57%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Pune?
It should help neither side: we class the surface as balanced / dry for this T20I, with India projected at 194-226 and Sri Lanka at 166-198.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs SL?
The toss shouldn't decide much. Both options are reasonable here. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during India vs Sri Lanka?
Lost overs mean a DLS target; if the minimum overs can't be played, the match is a no-result. Which bets stand or are void depends on each site's rules. Check the Pune forecast before you bet.
India vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein India aage hain: 70% chance, jabki Sri Lanka ka 30% hai. Match Sun, 27 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Pune ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Where can I follow India vs Sri Lanka live?
Follow the score ball by ball on the Malik Mumbai live scores page. TV and streaming rights vary by country, so check local listings for the broadcast.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.