Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026, match 4 of 6
India vs Sri Lanka 1st T20I prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
67%India
33%Sri Lanka
Quick overview
- Our pick: India to win, a 67% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Niranjan Shah Stadium: A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average.
- Series momentum: 2 games remain after this, so a win would give India the upper hand in the series.
- Safest bet: India (Match winner), about a 67% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the IND vs SL 1st T20I?
India are our pick for the IND vs SL 1st T20I, at 67%. Expect India to score about 210 and Sri Lanka about 179, with conditions at Niranjan Shah Stadium helping neither side. First ball is Mon, 21 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- India, 67%
- Format
- T20 International
- Pitch helps
- Balanced
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Niranjan Shah Stadium
A fair contest between bat and ball, so phase scores should sit close to the format average. Neither attack gets special help here.
Helps Even
Series momentum
2 games remain after this, so a win would give India the upper hand in the series.
Helps India
Batting depth
Our projected totals put India about 31 runs ahead. Across a T20I, that gap is a big part of why India lead the market.
Helps India
What will India and Sri Lanka score?
How we expect each innings to build, phase by phase, on a balanced / dry surface at Niranjan Shah Stadium.
India Sri Lanka
- Powerplay (0-6)
- IND52-60SL44-52
- Middle Overs (7-15)
- IND78-88SL69-79
- Death Overs (16-20)
- IND64-78SL51-63
First-innings scoreIND 194-226/SL 164-194
Best bets for IND vs SL
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 67%
Match winner
India
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 60%
India first-innings score
Over 200.5 runs
We project India around 210. A line near 200.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 25%
Top batter
Virat Kohli (India)
Sets the early scoring rate. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing India vs Sri Lanka?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
India
- Virat KohliSets the early scoring rate93impact
- Jasprit BumrahOpens the bowling81impact
Sri Lanka
- Dilshan MadushankaOur pick for overs 17-2086impact
- Sadeera SamarawickramaGoes hard in the first six87impact
Match preview
Match 4 of 6 in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026 brings the sides back together. India know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. We rate India at 67%, weighing team strength, how Niranjan Shah Stadium usually plays and a balanced / dry pitch. The gap is real, but cricket gives underdogs a way back through one good spell. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch.
Where the 1st T20I fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in Sri Lanka tour of India, 2026.
The 1st T20I is match 4 of 6, played at Niranjan Shah Stadium in Rajkot on Mon, 21 Dec 2026.
It comes 2 days after the 3rd ODI at Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad, so both squads travel to Rajkot in between. That is a quick turnaround: expect at least one side to rest a frontline fast bowler.
Next, the 2nd T20I is 3 days after this one at Barabati Stadium in Cuttack.
- 19 Dec3rd ODI: India vs Sri LankaNarendra Modi Stadium
- 21 Dec1st T20I: India vs Sri LankaNiranjan Shah StadiumThis match
- 24 Dec2nd T20I: India vs Sri LankaBarabati Stadium
More cricket predictions
IND vs SL 1st T20I: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win India vs Sri Lanka?
India, at 67% on our model, with Sri Lanka given 33%. Team strength, home advantage and a balanced / dry pitch at Niranjan Shah Stadium all feed into that rating.
What time does the IND vs SL 1st T20I start in India?
Play is set to start Mon, 21 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Niranjan Shah Stadium, Rajkot. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for IND vs SL?
India to win is the safer option at 67%. The value pick is india first-innings score over 200.5 runs at 60%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Rajkot?
It should help neither side: we class the surface as balanced / dry for this T20I, with India projected at 194-226 and Sri Lanka at 164-194.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in IND vs SL?
Neither batting nor bowling first is a clear advantage on this pitch. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during India vs Sri Lanka?
Lost overs mean a DLS target; if the minimum overs can't be played, the match is a no-result. Which bets stand or are void depends on each site's rules. Check the Rajkot forecast before you bet.
India vs Sri Lanka match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se India favourite hain, 67% chance ke saath, aur Sri Lanka ka chance 33% hai. Match Mon, 21 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Rajkot ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko balanced / dry rate karte hain, isliye bat aur ball dono ke liye barabar hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Is there home advantage in the 1st T20I?
Yes, India are at home. Knowing the ground and the conditions is worth a few percentage points, and it is included in our 67% rating for India.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.