New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, match 1 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test prediction
Who we back, how the pitch should play, projected scores phase by phase, and three bets from safe to long shot.
64%Australia
36%New Zealand
Quick overview
- Our pick: Australia to win, a 64% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Perth Stadium: Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers.
- The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
- Safest bet: Australia (Match winner), about a 64% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?
Malik Mumbai backs Australia to beat New Zealand in the 1st Test at Perth Stadium, rating their chances at 64%. We expect Australia to make around 290 and New Zealand around 278 on a pitch that helps the batters. Play starts Wed, 09 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- Australia, 64%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Perth Stadium
Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers. Boundaries come easily, so a big total is the starting point, not a bonus. Both teams' batters should enjoy it.
Helps Even
The toss
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Helps Even
Batting depth
Our projected totals put Australia about 12 runs ahead. Across a Test, that gap is a big part of why Australia lead the market.
Helps Australia
What will Australia and New Zealand score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a flat / batters surface at Perth Stadium.
Australia New Zealand
- Session 1
- AUS85-101NZ83-97
- Session 2
- AUS100-118NZ92-108
- Session 3
- AUS81-95NZ80-96
Day-one scoreAUS 266-314/NZ 255-301
Best bets for AUS vs NZ
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 64%
Match winner
Australia
The most likely result on our numbers. Short odds mean a small return, so size the stake accordingly.
Value
Our chance 62%
Australia day-one score
Over 275.5 runs
We project Australia around 290. A line near 275.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 22%
Top batter
David Warner (Australia)
Built for long innings. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
- David WarnerBuilt for long innings83impact
- Josh HazlewoodHits the deck hard92impact
New Zealand
- Matt HenryHits the deck hard96impact
- Glenn PhillipsTurns fifties into hundreds86impact
Match preview
This is the first match of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, so there is no recent head-to-head in these conditions to lean on. Australia know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. We rate Australia at 64%, weighing team strength, how Perth Stadium usually plays and a flat / batters pitch. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Confirm both XIs at the toss before you stake.
The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Where the 1st Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
The 1st Test is match 1 of 4, played at Perth Stadium in Perth on Wed, 09 Dec 2026.
It opens the series, so neither side has played the other on this tour yet. Early odds lean on reputation more than on form in these conditions.
Next, the 2nd Test is 10 days after this one at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.
Perth Stadium hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 1st ODI: Australia vs England (12 Nov).
- 09 Dec1st Test: Australia vs New ZealandPerth StadiumThis match
- 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval
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AUS vs NZ 1st Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Australia are favourites. Malik Mumbai rates their chance of winning the 1st Test at 64%, with New Zealand on 36%. The projection weighs team strength, home advantage and the flat / batters conditions at Perth Stadium.
What time does the AUS vs NZ 1st Test start in India?
Play is set to start Wed, 09 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST (India time) at Perth Stadium, Perth. Confirm on the day in case the schedule moves.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for AUS vs NZ?
For a safer bet, back Australia (64%). For more value, try australia day-one score over 275.5 runs (62%). Keep stakes to money you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Perth?
We rate the Perth Stadium surface flat / batters for this Test, which should help the batters. Our projected day-one scores are 266-314 for Australia and 255-301 for New Zealand.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides. The coin goes up roughly half an hour before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What happens if it rains during Australia vs New Zealand?
Lost time is not made up in full, so rain makes a draw more likely. Bets on the match result still stand, while session markets for overs never bowled are usually void. Check the forecast for Perth on the day.
Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se Australia favourite hain, 64% chance ke saath, aur New Zealand ka chance 36% hai. Match Wed, 09 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Perth ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / batters rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How many runs will be scored in Australia vs New Zealand?
We project Australia to make 266-314 and New Zealand to make 255-301 in their day-one scores. The biggest scoring phase should be session 2.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.