New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, match 4 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test prediction
The verdict, a pitch read, how each innings should unfold and three bets at rising risk.
63%Australia
37%New Zealand
Quick overview
- Our pick: Australia to win, a 63% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground: Flat, quick and true, with a fast outfield.
- Batting depth: Australia should outscore their opponents by roughly 21 runs on our numbers, a solid buffer over a Test.
- Safest bet: Australia (Match winner), about a 63% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?
Australia are our pick for the AUS vs NZ 4th Test, at 63%. Expect Australia to score about 297 and New Zealand about 276, with conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground helping the batters. First ball is Fri, 08 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- Australia, 63%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground
Flat, quick and true, with a fast outfield. Bowlers need a plan B here, and big totals are the norm rather than the exception. Both teams' batters should enjoy it.
Helps Even
Batting depth
Australia should outscore their opponents by roughly 21 runs on our numbers, a solid buffer over a Test.
Helps Australia
Series momentum
With 0 matches left after this one, Australia can put real pressure on with a win here.
Helps Australia
What will Australia and New Zealand score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a flat / batters surface at Sydney Cricket Ground.
Australia New Zealand
- Session 1
- AUS87-101NZ80-94
- Session 2
- AUS99-117NZ97-115
- Session 3
- AUS87-103NZ76-90
Day-one scoreAUS 273-321/NZ 253-299
Best bets for AUS vs NZ
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 63%
Match winner
Australia
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 55%
Australia day-one score
Over 282.5 runs
Our projection for Australia is about 297, comfortably above 282.5, so a quiet start shouldn't sink it.
Long shot
Our chance 19%
Top batter
Marnus Labuschagne (Australia)
Built for long innings. Top-batter odds are usually long, so a small stake is enough.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
- Marnus LabuschagneBuilt for long innings82impact
- Josh HazlewoodHits the deck hard82impact
New Zealand
- Finn AllenBuilt for long innings85impact
- Tim SoutheeHits the deck hard87impact
Match preview
With most of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 played, there are few surprises left in either line-up. Australia know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. The 63% rating for Australia comes from team strength, scoring patterns at Sydney Cricket Ground and a flat / batters surface. The gap is real, but cricket gives underdogs a way back through one good spell. Confirm both XIs at the toss before you stake.
The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Where the 4th Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
The 4th Test is match 4 of 4, played at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
It comes 10 days after the 3rd Test at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, so both squads travel to Sydney in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
This is the last match of the series, so there is no later game to save players for.
Sydney Cricket Ground hosts 1 other match on our calendar: 4th T20I: Australia vs England (29 Nov).
- 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
- 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket GroundThis match
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- 11 MarOne-off Test: Australia vs EnglandAustralia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027
AUS vs NZ 4th Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Our numbers make Australia the favourites for the 4th Test: 63% against 37% for New Zealand, based on team strength, home advantage and conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground.
What time does the AUS vs NZ 4th Test start in India?
First ball is due Fri, 08 Jan 2027 at 19:30 IST India time at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for AUS vs NZ?
Our safer bet is Australia to win (63%). For better value, we like australia day-one score over 282.5 runs (55%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Sydney?
We rate the Sydney Cricket Ground surface flat / batters for this Test, which should help the batters. Our projected day-one scores are 273-321 for Australia and 253-299 for New Zealand.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during Australia vs New Zealand?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Sydney forecast on the day.
Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein Australia aage hain: 63% chance, jabki New Zealand ka 37% hai. Match Fri, 08 Jan 2027 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Sydney ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / batters rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
How many runs will be scored in Australia vs New Zealand?
We project Australia to make 273-321 and New Zealand to make 253-299 in their day-one scores. The biggest scoring phase should be session 2.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.