New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, match 3 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test prediction
The verdict, a pitch read, how each innings should unfold and three bets at rising risk.
69%Australia
31%New Zealand
Quick overview
- Our pick: Australia to win, a 69% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Melbourne Cricket Ground: Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers.
- Series momentum: 1 game remains after this, so a win would give Australia the upper hand in the series.
- Safest bet: Australia (Match winner), about a 69% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?
Australia are our pick for the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test, at 69%. Expect Australia to score about 289 and New Zealand about 277, with conditions at Melbourne Cricket Ground helping the batters. First ball is Tue, 29 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- Australia, 69%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Batters
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Melbourne Cricket Ground
Expect even bounce and little help for the bowlers. Boundaries come easily, so a big total is the starting point, not a bonus. Whichever side uses its batters better gains the edge.
Helps Even
Series momentum
1 game remains after this, so a win would give Australia the upper hand in the series.
Helps Australia
The toss
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Helps Even
What will Australia and New Zealand score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a flat / batters surface at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Australia New Zealand
- Session 1
- AUS81-97NZ83-97
- Session 2
- AUS96-114NZ94-110
- Session 3
- AUS88-102NZ77-93
Day-one scoreAUS 265-313/NZ 254-300
Best bets for AUS vs NZ
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 69%
Match winner
Australia
The side we rate most likely to win. Expect a short price and a modest payout.
Value
Our chance 55%
Australia day-one score
Over 274.5 runs
We project Australia around 289. A line near 274.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 20%
Top batter
Steve Smith (Australia)
Built for long innings. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
- Steve SmithBuilt for long innings86impact
- Mitchell MarshGives the side a fifth bowler92impact
New Zealand
- Glenn PhillipsBuilt for long innings91impact
- Matt HenryHits the deck hard83impact
Match preview
With most of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 played, there are few surprises left in either line-up. Australia have the home crowd and local knowledge, and we have given them credit for it. Our projection gives Australia a 69% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Melbourne Cricket Ground and a flat / batters surface. The margin is clear, but one big partnership can still change everything. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides.
Where the 3rd Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
The 3rd Test is match 3 of 4, played at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne on Tue, 29 Dec 2026.
It comes 10 days after the 2nd Test at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, so both squads travel to Melbourne in between. The long gap gives both sides time to reset, so form from the last game counts for less.
Next, the 4th Test is 10 days after this one at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney.
Melbourne Cricket Ground hosts 2 other matchs on our calendar: 1st T20I: Australia vs England (21 Nov), One-off Test: Australia vs England (11 Mar).
- 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval
- 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket GroundThis match
- 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground
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- 11 MarOne-off Test: Australia vs EnglandAustralia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027
AUS vs NZ 3rd Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Australia, at 69% on our model, with New Zealand given 31%. Team strength, home advantage and a flat / batters pitch at Melbourne Cricket Ground all feed into that rating.
What time does the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test start in India?
The 3rd Test is scheduled for Tue, 29 Dec 2026 at 19:30 IST India time, at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne. Series dates can move, so confirm on the day.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for AUS vs NZ?
Our safer bet is Australia to win (69%). For better value, we like australia day-one score over 274.5 runs (55%). Only stake what you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Melbourne?
A flat / batters pitch, by our reading, so expect it to help the batters. That points to day-one scores of about 289 for Australia and 277 for New Zealand.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?
Bat or bowl, the toss winner gains little: the runs should be there for both sides. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, and both XIs are named then.
What happens if it rains during Australia vs New Zealand?
Rain in a Test makes a draw more likely, because lost overs are rarely recovered in full. Match-result bets stand, but session markets for unbowled overs are usually void. Check the Melbourne forecast on the day.
Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jitega?
Hamare model mein Australia aage hain: 69% chance, jabki New Zealand ka 31% hai. Match Tue, 29 Dec 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh sirf prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Melbourne ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko flat / batters rate karte hain, isliye batters ke liye achha hai aur bada score ban sakta hai. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Is there home advantage in the 3rd Test?
Yes, Australia are at home. Knowing the ground and the conditions is worth a few percentage points, and it is included in our 69% rating for Australia.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.