India tour of New Zealand, 2026, match 11 of 12
New Zealand vs India 1st Test prediction
Our pick, what the pitch will do, how the innings should build, and three bets at different risk levels.
58%New Zealand
42%India
Quick overview
- Our pick: New Zealand to win, a 58% chance in our model.
- Conditions at Basin Reserve: Grass on the surface and movement off the seam, especially in the first hour.
- Batting depth: Only 0 runs separate our projected totals, which is close to nothing.
- Safest bet: New Zealand (Match winner), about a 58% chance.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm on the day.
Who will win the NZ vs IND 1st Test?
New Zealand are our pick for the NZ vs IND 1st Test, at 58%. Expect New Zealand to score about 257 and India about 257, with conditions at Basin Reserve helping the quicks. First ball is Thu, 26 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST.
- Our pick
- New Zealand, 58%
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch helps
- Seamers
What will decide it
The three things we think will settle this match, and which side each one helps.
Conditions at Basin Reserve
Grass on the surface and movement off the seam, especially in the first hour. Survive the new ball and runs get much easier. This suits New Zealand, who know these conditions best.
Helps New Zealand
Batting depth
Only 0 runs separate our projected totals, which is close to nothing. Expect individual innings, not overall squad strength, to settle this one.
Helps Even
The toss
Bowling first is the likely choice, to get the most out of the early movement.
Helps Toss winner
What will New Zealand and India score?
How we expect each day to build, phase by phase, on a green / seam surface at Basin Reserve.
New Zealand India
- Session 1
- NZ72-88IND81-95
- Session 2
- NZ87-103IND85-101
- Session 3
- NZ75-89IND69-83
Day-one scoreNZ 234-280/IND 235-279
Best bets for NZ vs IND
One match, three risk levels. The safer bet lands most often; the long shot pays most when it does.
Safer
Our chance 58%
Match winner
New Zealand
Our model's top pick. The odds will be short, so keep the stake modest if you want a real return.
Value
Our chance 62%
New Zealand day-one score
Over 243.5 runs
We project New Zealand around 257. A line near 243.5 leaves room for a slow start and still lands.
Long shot
Our chance 19%
Top batter
Kane Williamson (New Zealand)
Turns fifties into hundreds. A top-batter bet pays well when it lands, so keep the stake small.
Who can swing New Zealand vs India?
Our impact rating is how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
- Trent BoultDangerous with the new ball86impact
- Kane WilliamsonTurns fifties into hundreds94impact
India
- Yashasvi JaiswalBuilt for long innings94impact
- Mohammed ShamiDangerous with the new ball89impact
Match preview
Late in India tour of New Zealand, 2026, the plans are well known, so execution on the day decides it. New Zealand know these grounds well, which is built into our numbers. Our projection gives New Zealand a 58% chance, built on team strength, recent scoring at Basin Reserve and a green / seam surface. The margin is small, so the toss and the first hour matter more than usual. Check the playing XIs before you bet.
The toss: Bowling first is the likely choice, to get the most out of the early movement.
Where the 1st Test fits in the series
Rest days, travel and what comes next in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.
The 1st Test is match 11 of 12, played at Basin Reserve in Wellington on Thu, 26 Nov 2026.
It comes 3 days after the 5th ODI at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, so both squads travel to Wellington in between. The gap is long enough for full-strength XIs, so squad rotation should be limited.
Next, the 2nd Test is 4 days after this one at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
- 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
- 26 Nov1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin ReserveThis match
- 30 Nov2nd Test: New Zealand vs IndiaHagley Oval
More cricket predictions
NZ vs IND 1st Test: questions fans ask
Quick answers to what readers ask us most.
Who is favourite to win New Zealand vs India?
New Zealand, at 58% on our model, with India given 42%. Team strength, home advantage and a green / seam pitch at Basin Reserve all feed into that rating.
What time does the NZ vs IND 1st Test start in India?
First ball is due Thu, 26 Nov 2026 at 19:30 IST India time at Basin Reserve, Wellington. Check again on match day, as series dates sometimes change.
What is Malik Mumbai's best bet for NZ vs IND?
New Zealand to win is the safer option at 58%. The value pick is new zealand day-one score over 243.5 runs at 62%. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What is the pitch like in Wellington?
It should help the quicks: we class the surface as green / seam for this Test, with New Zealand projected at 234-280 and India at 235-279.
Should the toss winner bat or bowl first in NZ vs IND?
Bowling first is the likely choice, to get the most out of the early movement. Expect the toss about 30 minutes before play begins at 19:30 IST, with the XIs named at the same time.
What happens if it rains during New Zealand vs India?
Lost time is not made up in full, so rain makes a draw more likely. Bets on the match result still stand, while session markets for overs never bowled are usually void. Check the forecast for Wellington on the day.
New Zealand vs India match kaun jitega?
Malik Mumbai ke model ke hisaab se New Zealand favourite hain, 58% chance ke saath, aur India ka chance 42% hai. Match Thu, 26 Nov 2026 ko 19:30 IST par shuru hoga. Yeh prediction hai, guarantee nahi.
Wellington ki pitch report kya hai?
Hum is pitch ko green / seam rate karte hain, isliye fast bowlers ko zyada madad milegi. Toss aur playing XI ka faisla match se lagbhag 30 minute pehle hota hai.
Which players should I watch in New Zealand vs India?
Trent Boult for New Zealand (dangerous with the new ball) and Yashasvi Jaiswal for India (built for long innings). Final XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Still unsure? Ask our team
Predictions, projected scores and win percentages on this page come from Malik Mumbai's own model, built from team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a limit before you play and bet responsibly.